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FANGs Overvalued Despite Recent Drop: Paul Meeks By Mark Kolakowski | Updated July 31, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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FB
Facebook Inc
171.47 +0.24%
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc
1,783.16 +0.22%
NFLX
Netflix Inc
334.92 -0.01%
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According to longtime technology analyst and portfolio manager Paul Meeks, currently the chief investment officer (CIO) at Sloy, Dahl & Holst Inc., the FANG group of mega cap tech stocks is too richly priced for his tastes right now. These stocks include Facebook Inc. (FB
FB
Facebook Inc
171.47
+0.24%
), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc
1,783.16
+0.22%
), Netflix Inc. (NFLX
NFLX
Netflix Inc
334.92
-0.01%
) and Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc
1,221.85
-0.67%
). As he told CNBC: "I wouldn't buy them today. I would buy them on a correction." The generally-accepted definition of a correction is a market decline between 10% and 20%. Meeks added: "They will have a slip up at some point and these stocks won't go down 2%, they'll go down 20% because they're volatile tech names and that's your buying opportunity."
Stock Forward P/E Ratio YTD Gain Gain Since 7/26 Close
Facebook 19.7 (3.1%) (3.0%)
Amazon 73.2 52.1% (1.6%)
Netflix 77.4 74.5% (7.7%)
Alphabet 25.6 16.8% (4.3%)
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 17.7 4.8% (1.2%)
Sources: Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal; gains through the close on July 30.
Meeks spoke to CNBC during the morning of July 27. After being noted for many years as a technology bull, he has raised eyebrows in January with his shift to bearishness on the sector. As recently as December, however, he was calling for the FANGs to outperform in 2018, citing Facebook and Alphabet as his favorites. All except Facebook indeed have beaten the market year-to-date. (For more, see also: Long-Time Tech Analyst Advises Sector Overvalued.)
The NYSE FANG + Index, which includes a much larger group of big tech stocks, fell into correction territory on Monday.
Facebook: Needs 'Clarity'
In his comments, Meeks said: "I'll get re-interested in Facebook under two scenarios: One, some clarity around the business model or, two, the stock probably has to be $10 or $15 lower than where it's currently trading at to get me back in." Facebook closed on July 26 at $176.26 per share, so Meeks was looking for a drop to between, roughly, $150 and $159, before he'd get interested again. CNBC noted that he reduced his position when Facebook was trading in the high $170s earlier last week. Facebook hit a 52-week high of $218.62 in intraday trading on July 25, and closed on July 30 at $171.06, or 22% below that high.
Netflix: Still Dizzyingly High
Netflix stock also is in bear market territory, down 21% from its own 52-week high of $423.21 set on June 21 in intraday trading. The company's stratospheric valuation has been a source of much concern among investors. Like Facebook, the recent tumble in its share price was due to earnings disappointments, but Netflix still sports a hefty forward P/E that is in excess of 77 times projected earnings over the next 12 months.
Nonetheless, Meeks expressed some regret in not being a buyer of Netflix in advance of its previous big run. As far as Amazon and Alphabet are concerned, he acknowledged that both have delivered "impressive results." (For more, see also: Netflix in Correction, but Still Huge 2018 Leader.)
Value in China
Meeks mentioned that he prefers Chinese internet companies Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA
BABA
Alibaba Grp
186.50
+0.91%
) and Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY). "In some cases you could say they have better growth potential than the American net leaders, and you're buying them in just a total wipeout in their stock markets."
Read more: FANGs Overvalued Despite Recent Drop: Paul Meeks | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/fangs-overvalued-despite-recent-drop-paul-meeks/#ixzz5MqDNnIaQ
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