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Tesla May Fall 40% as Turnaround Stalls: JPMorgan By Matthew Johnston | July 24, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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Once a darling stock of investors, Tesla has fallen more than 18% since its 2018 high reached last month, and with a still relatively high valuation, J.P. Morgan expects that poor performance to continue throughout the year. In a note last Friday citing the high valuation as well as concerns about cash flow and more aggressive pricing on electric cars from rivals, analyst Ryan Brinkman reaffirmed a previously set price target for December 2018 that implies a more than 40% downside from Monday’s close, according to CNBC.
Price Target Downside
$180 -40.6%
Time Horizon 5-Year 1-Year YTD
Stock Performance +147.0% -7.7% -2.6%
Rising Competition
Competition from other automakers is heating up, with rivals becoming increasingly aggressive in their pricing strategies. Brinkman argues that, rather than trying to generate profits from electric-vehicle sales, rival automakers are instead employing a strategy of product-cost cross-subsidization, cutting the prices on electric cars subsidized by higher prices on what he considers to be “their more lucrative internal combustion engine portfolio vehicles.” Unlike its rivals that are able to rely on sales of non-electric vehicles to generate profits, Tesla only sells vehicles of the electric variety.
Other problems facing the company have been those surrounding the production of its Model 3 sedan, with issues ranging from an over-reliance on automation on its assembly lines to battery issues and other various bottlenecks. However, Tesla did announce earlier this month that it met its one-week production goal of 5,000 Model 3 cars during the final week of the second quarter.
But to meet that goal, the company has been burning through cash at a rate of about $1 billion per quarter, according to one estimate. With debts and other expenses to pay, Tesla recently asked some of its suppliers to refund a portion of what it had spent in previous years, basically a refund on past work. Dennis Virag, a manufacturing consultant with 40 years of experience in the automotive industry told the Wall Street Journal, “it just shows that Tesla is desperate right now.” (To read more, see: Tesla Reportedly Asked Suppliers for Cash Back to Show Profit.)
Brinkman is taking a cautious stance towards Tesla’s second-quarter financial results, which are expected to be out on the first of next month. He is concerned that cash flow figures will show significant outflows and that several extra expenses will reveal inefficiencies related to ramping up production.
The Bull Case
There are still some Tesla believers though. Last month, Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah indicated to clients in a note that he expects costs for long-range batteries to decline and is optimistic about the company’s first overseas factory set to open in Shanghai. He raised his 12-month price target from $420 to $450. (To read more, see: Tesla to $400 and Beyond, Say Street Bulls.)
Read more: Tesla May Fall 40% as Turnaround Stalls: JPMorgan | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla-may-fall-40-turnaround-stalls-jpmorgan/#ixzz5MBH4kqQ0
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