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Twitter's Stock May Rebound 9% Over the Short Term By Michael Kramer | August 23, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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Twitter Inc
34.26 +1.33%
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(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager.)
Twitter Inc.'s (TWTR
TWTR
Twitter Inc
34.26
+1.33%
) stock has fallen by more than 27% from its highs at the beginning of July. Shares dropped after the company reported monthly active users fell in the second quarter while providing disappointing forward quarterly guidance. Shares of the Jack Dorsey-led social media company may be due to rebound by as much as 9%, based on technical analysis, from their current price around $33.75.
But a rebound may only be short term after the disappointing results. Analysts have been slashing their forecasts for the company for the coming quarter and year. (For more, see also: Twitter's Stock Seen Rising 14%.)
Technical Rebound
Twitter’s stock gapped lower following the quarterly results, falling to a technical support level around $31.90. Now shares are starting to turn higher and may rise by almost 9% back to technical resistance around $36.60. The relative strength index (RSI) has also started rising again, and that suggests bullish momentum is now moving back into the stock.
Estimates Drop
A longer-term recovery may hinge on the company's ability to drive future growth. Yet, over the past month analysts have cut their third-quarter earnings forecast by more than 17%. Earnings are now estimated at $0.14 per share down from prior estimates of $0.17. Revenue forecasts fell as well for the quarter, dropping by 2% to $700 million from previous estimates of roughly $715 million. (For more, see also: Who Is Driving Twitter's Management Team?)
Full-year earnings estimates for 2018 came down, dropping by 6% to $0.70 per share from prior estimates of $0.73. Additionally, 2019 earnings estimates came down $0.78 from $0.84, while 2020 estimates fell to $0.93 from $0.99.
Full-year revenue estimates remain nearly unchanged.
Not Cheap
The stock is currently valued at the higher end of its historical range, with a one-year forward PE ratio at 42. Since the end of 2015, the stock has traded in a range between 17 and 52. Additionally, the earnings growth rate for the stock is forecast to slow in 2019 to approximately 12% down from 57% this year. When adjusting the stock for that slowing growth, the PEG ratio rises to over 3.5, making shares expensive as well.
With earnings estimates for the company falling and questions around monthly active users, the stock may continue to struggle. Should shares rise it may only be over the short term. At this point, a longer-term rebound may prove more challenging, at least until the next round of quarterly results.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Read more: Twitter's Stock May Rebound 9% Over the Short Term | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/twitters-stock-may-rebound-9-over-short-term/#ixzz5P0yZP1YL
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