Sanggup Habiskan RM45k Ubah Wajah Seperti Hael Husaini






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Stock Investors’ One Big Risk in a Market Crash By Matthew Johnston | August 14, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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Liquidity is a bit like oxygen, easily forgotten and taken for granted when it’s there, but quickly noticed when it’s gone. Judging by recent Wall Street commentary, investors are starting to notice liquidity again, meaning they’re noticing the lack of it. The most noticeable sign came earlier in the year with volatility spiking following the stock market plunge in late January. Although the subsequent rebound makes the selloff look like a mere correction, investors should heed it as a warning sign that liquidity is drying up amid Federal Reserve monetary tightening and other global central banks becoming less accommodative, literally cutting off the supply of fresh capital, according to Business Insider.
Index Performance since Aug. 13, 2008
S&P 500 120.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 119.5%
Nasdaq Composite 222.8%
Russell 2000 125.6%
Source: Yahoo! Finance Aug. 13, 2018
While markets were still tumbling in the summer of '08 in the midst of the financial crisis, since that time, U.S. stock markets have climbed significantly, reaching one new high after another. Both the S&P 500 and Dow are up about 120% since August 2008, to note just two U.S. stock indices. But this past January’s steep decline that bled into the month of February and left markets gyrating with high levels of volatility for several months has shaken investors, with subsequent red flags emerging concerning the lack of liquidity. (To read more, see: Why the Sell-Off Is a Correction, Not a Bear Market.)
Low Liquidity: Cause Rather Than Symptom
While many believed that the market correction earlier in the year contributed to the decline in liquidity, a recent report from Goldman Sachs indicates that the direction of causation implied by that hypothesis is backwards. Rather than being a mere symptom, it was actually declining liquidity that caused the huge selloff, or at least made it much worse than it otherwise would have been. As liquidity dries up, trading becomes more expensive and asset prices more volatile.
Using a metric the bank refers to as “bid–ask depth” that takes into consideration the bid–ask spreads for heavily-traded S&P 500 E-mini futures, Goldman’s analysts found that the bid–ask depth had fallen to about half its late-2017 level just before the early-February stock market plunge. It is once again sitting at a historically low level, below its range from between the latter half of 2016 and early 2017, according to Business Insider.
Beyond Stocks
Considering the broader investment world, Morgan Stanley found that reduced liquidity levels have led to a spike in volatility for 14 separate assets among four major market groups. According to the firm’s data and a measure tracking those markets, volatility conditions are at levels not seen since 2008. (To read more, see: Morgan Stanley Says Biggest Correction Since Feb Looming.)
While central bank tightening is partly responsible for the lack of liquidity, Morgan Stanley also attributes the lack to how much markets have grown in size relative to the capacity of dealers responsible for executing the trades. Either way, if low liquidity causes a drop similar to the 50% plunge experienced by the S&P 500 during the financial crisis, low liquidity could very quickly turn into no liquidity, with all the subsequent financial, economic, and political problems that ensue.
Read more: Stock Investors’ One Big Risk in a Market Crash | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/stock-investors-one-big-risk-market-crash/#ixzz5OA8jSWsO
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