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Alphabet May Rise 11% as Analysts Up Forecasts By Michael Kramer | August 6, 2018 — 6:00 AM EDT
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GOOGL
Alphabet Inc
1,233.49 -0.38%
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(Note: The author of this fundamental analysis is a financial writer and portfolio manager. He and his clients own shares of GOOGL)
Shares of Alphabet Inc., parent company of dominant search engine Google (GOOGL
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc
1,233.49
-0.38%
), continue to rise following its better than expected second-quarter results. The stock is now up nearly 18% on the year, easily topping the S&P 500 rise of only 6%. Analysts are now not only upping their earnings and revenue estimates for the coming quarter, but they have also significantly boosted their price targets, and now see the stock rising by nearly 11% from its current price around $1,240.
The parent of search engine Google posted blowout second quarter results on July 23. Earnings crushed analysts estimates by more than 23%, while revenue topped estimates by over 1%. (For more, see also: Alphabet's Bull Run May Be Far From Over.)
Rising Estimates
GOOGL EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year Chart
GOOGL EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Following the better than expected results, analysts have increased their outlook for the third quarter. Earnings estimates have increased by over 1% since the company reported, and are now forecast to rise by 12% in the quarter versus last year. Revenue estimates have also been upped, rising by over 1% and are now seen increasing by over 22% for the quarter.
The outlook for the full-year improves as well, with earnings estimates rising by over 1%, and revenue estimates increasing by over 1.5%. Earnings for 2018 are now expected to grow by more than 39%, while revenue is forecast to grow by nearly 24%.
Upping Price Targets
Because of the big earnings beat and the better than expected outlook, the average price target on the stock has increased. Since the middle of July, the average price target on the stock has climbed over 9% and is now seen rising to $1370, an increase of nearly 11% from the stock’s current price of approximately $1,240.
GOOGL Chart
GOOGL data by YCharts
Not Cheap
The one thing potentially standing in the way of the stock's rise, may be its valuation, with shares trading at roughly 25 times 2019 earnings estimates of $49.52 per share. At its current earnings multiple, the stock is trading at the higher end of its historical earnings multiple range. Since early 2015, the stock has traded in a range of 14 to 26.5. For the stock price to continue rising over the longer-term without the valuation becoming too stretched, earnings estimates would need to continue to rise. (For more, see also: Alphabet's Bulls Get More Bullish as Earnings Near.)
Fundamental Chart Chart
Fundamental Chart data by YCharts
The strong quarterly results have certainly been a positive catalyst over the past few weeks. But for shares to continue to rise over the longer-term, the company will need to continue to post better than expected results.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, and the manager of the company's actively managed, long-only Thematic Growth Portfolio. Kramer typically buys and holds stocks for a duration of three to five years. Click here for Kramer's bio and his portfolio's holdings. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Read more: Alphabet May Rise 11% as Analysts Up Forecasts | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/news/alphabet-may-rise-11-analysts-forecasts/#ixzz5NPjTs6HX
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